Uncertainty Analysis of Seepage-Induced Consolidation in a Fractured Porous Medium

Numerical modeling of seepage-induced consolidation process usually encounters significant uncertainty in the properties geotechnical materials. Assessing effect uncertain parameters on performance variability seepage model is critical importance to simulation and tests this process. To end, sensitivity analyses are performed a fractured porous medium using Bayesian sparse polynomial chaos expansion (SPCE) method. Five including Young’s modulus, Poisson’s ratio, permeability matrix, within fracture, Biot’s constant studied. SPCE models for displacement, flow velocity magnitude, fluid pressure at several reference points constructed represent input-output relationship numerical model. Based these models, total first-order Sobol’ indices computed quantify contribution each input parameter responses. The results show that different locations domain, effects output quantities. At beginning process, hydraulic make major contributions As progresses, decreases gradually surpassed by mechanical parameters. This work demonstrates feasibility apply approach problems provides guidelines modelling experimental testing such problems.